HVAC equipment shipments strong through August - Steel Market Update

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Written by Brett Linton

October 15, 2024

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Heating and cooling equipment shipments remained near multi-year highs in August, according to the latest data released from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

Total August shipments increased 2% month on month (m/m) to 2.07 million units (Figure 1, left). Shipments are 6% greater than the same month last year. August now represents the second-highest monthly shipment rate recorded in the last two years, just below the 2.16 million units rate recorded in June.

On an annualized 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis, shipments have trended higher since June (Figure 1, right). This follows a significant decline from mid-2022 through the start of this year, following the post-Covid surge. The 12MMA through August is up to an 11-month high of 1.80 million units, 1% less than the same period one year prior.

August shipments of residential and commercial storage water heaters jumped 10% m/m from July’s one-year low, now up to 797,000 units. (Recall that in March we saw a two-year high of 887,000 units). August shipments are 1% higher than levels seen one year ago. Total monthly water heater shipments have averaged 806,000 units over the past year.

Warm air furnace shipments have bounced around since reaching a 20-month high in June. Following a 16% drop in July, shipments recovered 14% m/m in August to a combined 293,000 units. This is 3% higher than levels seen one year prior. Furnace shipments have averaged 251,000 units per month across the prior 12 months.

Shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps fell 6% m/m in August to a total of 976,000 units. This follows a two-year high of 1.08 million units recorded in June. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, with slowdowns experienced throughout the winter months as evident in Figure 2. Total air conditioner and heat pump shipments are 11% greater than the same month one year prior. Shipments have averaged 744,000 units per month across the last year.

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at [email protected] or 724-314-0179.

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